The Inflation Hangover and the Companies Still Standing
It seems inflation is the houseguest who has long overstayed their welcome. You know the type. They drink your best wine, use all the hot water, and despite repeated, increasingly unsubtle hints, simply refuse to leave. For months, central bankers, particularly those at the US Federal Reserve, assured us this guest was packing their bags. Any day now, they said. Well, the latest data suggests the bags are not only unpacked, but the guest has started redecorating the spare room.
To me, this wasn't a great surprise. The idea that we could pump trillions into the global economy and not face a prolonged inflationary hangover always seemed a bit, shall we say, optimistic. The recent Personal Consumption Expenditures index, the Fed’s favourite bedtime reading, confirmed as much. It came in hotter than anyone in an official capacity was willing to admit was possible. This stickiness means the dream of imminent interest rate cuts is likely to remain just that, a dream.