Walmart vs Costco

This page provides a neutral comparison of Walmart Inc. and Costco Wholesale, examining their distinct business models, financial performance, and market context. Gain insights into how these retail giants operate and compete in the current economic landscape. Educational content, not financial advice.

This page provides a neutral comparison of Walmart Inc. and Costco Wholesale, examining their distinct business models, financial performance, and market context. Gain insights into how these retail g...

Comparison Snapshot

Key Financial Metrics

WMT

Metric

COST

$937.61B

Market Cap

$433.96B

2.82%

Potential Profit

4.35%

Buy

Analyst Rating

Buy

Why It's Moving

Walmart surges on Nasdaq-100 inclusion and Google AI shopping partnership.

Nasdaq-100 entry boosts visibility and liquidity, sparking a 2.23% intraday share jump amid post-holiday trading buzz.
Google partnership integrates Gemini AI for seamless Walmart and Sam's Club shopping within the app, promising under-3-hour deliveries and account-linked perks.
Analysts upbeat with Oppenheimer and Barclays hiking price targets to $125, citing strong sales growth potential and sector tailwinds like rate cuts.

Sentiment:

🐃Bullish

Costco Shares Surge to 19-Week High on Robust Q1 Earnings and Analyst Upgrades

Q1 comparable sales hit 6.4% (7.1% excluding gas), driven by broad-based strength in non-foods, foods, and fresh categories, plus 20.5% digitally enabled growth.
Mizuho upgraded to Outperform with $1,000 target, spotlighting accelerating trade-up to premium memberships at 2-3x total adds and adding COST to Top Picks.
Deutsche Bank initiated Buy at $1,044, citing tailwinds like 2026 stimulus despite food disinflation and value-focused spending.

Sentiment:

🐃Bullish

Walmart surges on Nasdaq-100 inclusion and Google AI shopping partnership.

Nasdaq-100 entry boosts visibility and liquidity, sparking a 2.23% intraday share jump amid post-holiday trading buzz.
Google partnership integrates Gemini AI for seamless Walmart and Sam's Club shopping within the app, promising under-3-hour deliveries and account-linked perks.
Analysts upbeat with Oppenheimer and Barclays hiking price targets to $125, citing strong sales growth potential and sector tailwinds like rate cuts.

Sentiment:

🐃Bullish

Costco Shares Surge to 19-Week High on Robust Q1 Earnings and Analyst Upgrades

Q1 comparable sales hit 6.4% (7.1% excluding gas), driven by broad-based strength in non-foods, foods, and fresh categories, plus 20.5% digitally enabled growth.
Mizuho upgraded to Outperform with $1,000 target, spotlighting accelerating trade-up to premium memberships at 2-3x total adds and adding COST to Top Picks.
Deutsche Bank initiated Buy at $1,044, citing tailwinds like 2026 stimulus despite food disinflation and value-focused spending.

Sentiment:

🐃Bullish

Investment Analysis

Walmart

WMT

Pros

Walmart forecasts 3.75-4.75% sales growth and EPS of $2.52-$2.62 for fiscal 2026.
E-commerce sales surged 27% with 33% net income growth, bolstering omnichannel transformation.
Past-year stock return reached 25%, outpacing Costco amid diversified revenue streams.

Considerations

Forward P/E ratio of 36.02 exceeds its median of 35.58, indicating elevated valuation.
Volatility measures 4.60%, higher than Costco's 3.10%, signalling greater price fluctuations.
Three-year stock return forecast projects only 4.2%, trailing Costco's 15.5% outlook.

Costco

COST

Pros

Return on invested capital at 33.7% nearly doubles Walmart's 17.1%, reflecting superior efficiency.
Membership fees rose 14% in Q4, underpinning predictable recurring revenue growth.
Consensus EPS estimate rose to $19.97, implying 11% year-over-year increase for current fiscal year.

Considerations

Forward P/E ratio of 45.01 remains elevated despite being below one-year median of 50.39.
Past-year stock performance increased only 4.4%, lagging Walmart's stronger momentum.
E-commerce growth of 13.6% trails Walmart's 27%, constraining digital scalability.

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