Home DepotLowe's

Home Depot vs Lowe's

This page compares Home Depot and Lowe's to illuminate their business models, financial performance, and market context in a clear, accessible way. It presents neutral analysis of how each company ope...

Why It's Moving

Home Depot

Home Depot reaffirms 2025 guidance and unveils optimistic 2026 outlook at investor conference, signaling steady growth ahead.

  • Reaffirmed FY2025 guidance includes ~3% sales growth, $2B from GMS, and 12 new stores, underscoring resilience despite a 5-6% EPS dip from 2024.[1][3]
  • Preliminary 2026 outlook anticipates modest demand pickup from lower rates and replacement cycles, with potential for 4-5% comps in a market recovery scenario driving faster profit growth.[1][2][3]
  • Shares climbed 0.92% to $354.39 Friday as analysts eye the event as a pivot from earnings declines, with JP Morgan forecasting 2.2% SSS and $15.46 EPS.[2]
Sentiment:
🐃Bullish
Lowe's

Lowe's Powers Through Q3 with Pro Growth and Key Acquisition Boost

  • Adjusted EPS climbed 5.9% to $3.06, beating prior-year figures and underscoring operational strength despite softer retail comps.[1]
  • Total sales hit $20.8 billion, up $0.6 billion year-over-year, fueled by 11.4% online growth and double-digit gains in home services and Pro segments.[1]
  • Completed $8.8 billion Foundation Building Materials deal adds 370+ locations to enhance Pro assortment, fulfillment speed, and trade credit in high-growth regions.[1]
Sentiment:
🐃Bullish

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Investment Analysis

Pros

  • Home Depot commands a dominant market share of approximately 47%, significantly larger than Lowe's 28%, reflecting strong customer preference and brand strength.
  • The company has a consistent gross margin around 33.2%, demonstrating mature and efficient operations in its sector.
  • Home Depot has steadily growing revenues and earnings projections, with fiscal 2024 revenue expected to grow nearly 4% year over year and EPS slightly increasing.

Considerations

  • Shares trade at a premium valuation with a P/E ratio above its 5-year median, indicating less margin of safety compared to Lowe's.
  • Home Depot’s maximum historical drawdown is higher than Lowe's, suggesting greater downside risk during market downturns.
  • Its dividend yield is lower at around 2.4%, offering less income generation relative to Lowe’s higher shareholder yield.

Pros

  • Lowe’s stock trades at a significant valuation discount with a P/E roughly 22% lower than Home Depot’s, providing a margin of safety.
  • The company boasts superior capital efficiency with a return on invested capital near 27.8%, indicating strong operational excellence.
  • Lowe’s free cash flow margin is higher, around 9.2%, supporting better financial flexibility and potential for shareholder returns.

Considerations

  • Lowe’s market share and overall size are considerably smaller than Home Depot’s, which may limit economies of scale and competitive positioning.
  • The company is currently expected to face slight declines in revenue and earnings for fiscal 2024, signaling near-term growth challenges.
  • Lowe’s stock exhibits higher volatility and a larger historical drawdown compared to Home Depot, indicating more price risk.

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