Affirm vs Upstart

Explore the key differences between Affirm Holdings Inc and Upstart Holdings, Inc. on this comprehensive comparison page. We delve into their respective business models, analyse financial performance, and examine the broader market context affecting their stock trajectories. Understand the unique aspects of each company's position within the lending technology sector. Educational content, not financial advice.

Explore the key differences between Affirm Holdings Inc and Upstart Holdings, Inc. on this comprehensive comparison page. We delve into their respective business models, analyse financial performance,...

Comparison Snapshot

Key Financial Metrics

AFRM

Metric

UPST

$23.47B

Market Cap

$4.34B

31.53%

Potential Profit

30.01%

Buy

Analyst Rating

Buy

Why It's Moving

Affirm faces short seller pressure as Kerrisdale Capital flags business model risks ahead of key earnings.

Kerrisdale highlights Affirm's debt-to-equity ratio of 2.41 and insider sales of over 711,000 shares in three months, signaling potential confidence issues.
Valuation metrics show a P/E of 106.12 and PEG of 3.38, far above industry averages, raising overvaluation fears despite strong revenue growth.
Upcoming earnings on February 5 expect EPS of $0.28 and revenue of $1.06B, but Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) reflects cautious analyst optimism.

Sentiment:

🐻Bearish

Affirm faces short seller pressure as Kerrisdale Capital flags business model risks ahead of key earnings.

Kerrisdale highlights Affirm's debt-to-equity ratio of 2.41 and insider sales of over 711,000 shares in three months, signaling potential confidence issues.
Valuation metrics show a P/E of 106.12 and PEG of 3.38, far above industry averages, raising overvaluation fears despite strong revenue growth.
Upcoming earnings on February 5 expect EPS of $0.28 and revenue of $1.06B, but Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) reflects cautious analyst optimism.

Sentiment:

🐻Bearish

Investment Analysis

Affirm

AFRM

Pros

Affirm anticipates robust full-year earnings growth of 560% to $0.99 per share.
Recent quarterly results showed EPS of $0.23 beating consensus by $0.12 with revenue up 33.6%.
Analysts maintain Moderate Buy consensus with average price target of $89.17.

Considerations

Stock trades at elevated forward P/E of 82.63 versus industry average of 24.48.
Significant insider selling totalling over $57 million in past three months.
High beta of 3.57 exposes shares to substantial market volatility.

Upstart

UPST

Pros

Upstart benefits from AI-driven lending platform enhancing credit assessment efficiency.
Expanding partnerships with banks and credit unions bolster loan origination volumes.
Recent profitability improvements stem from scaled operations and lower funding costs.

Considerations

Persistent sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations hampers loan demand.
Regulatory scrutiny over AI lending models poses execution risks.
Competitive pressures from traditional banks erode market share gains.

About The Companies

Affirm (AFRM)

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) is a US-based financial technology company best known for buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) services that let consumers split purchases into instalments at checkout. It partners with merchants and platforms to embed financing at the point of sale and earns revenue from merchant fees, interest income on consumer loans and partner arrangements. Investors should note Affirm operates in a fast-growing but competitive space where customer adoption, credit quality and relationships with large merchants matter. The business can scale with e-commerce expansion but is exposed to regulatory scrutiny, macroeconomic shifts that affect consumer credit and pressure on margins from competitors. Market cap is about $24.26B, reflecting investor expectations for growth and improving unit economics. This summary is educational and not personalised financial advice — returns can go down as well as up. Consider your objectives and risk tolerance and consult an authorised adviser before investing.

Upstart (UPST)

Upstart Holdings (UPST) operates a technology-driven lending platform that connects borrowers with banks and also offers loans it holds on balance sheet. The company uses machine-learning models to assess creditworthiness and prize underwriting signals beyond traditional FICO scores, aiming to increase approval rates while managing default risk. Revenue derives from origination and servicing fees, interest income on held loans and platform fees from bank partners. Investors should note sensitivity to credit cycles, model performance and data drift, funding costs, and potential regulatory scrutiny around algorithmic lending. Upstart has experienced periods of rapid growth and volatility; future profit depends on charge-offs, loan volumes and funding conditions. This is general educational information, not personalised advice — values can fall as well as rise and past performance is not a guide to the future.

Affirm (AFRM) Next Earnings Date

Affirm Holdings will report its Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings on February 5, 2026, after market close. The company will host a conference call at 2:00 PM Pacific Time on the same day, featuring CEO Max Levchin, COO Michael Linford, and CFO Rob O'Hare to discuss results and strategic outlook. Analysts are currently projecting earnings per share of $0.28 for the quarter.

Affirm (AFRM) Next Earnings Date

Affirm Holdings will report its Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings on February 5, 2026, after market close. The company will host a conference call at 2:00 PM Pacific Time on the same day, featuring CEO Max Levchin, COO Michael Linford, and CFO Rob O'Hare to discuss results and strategic outlook. Analysts are currently projecting earnings per share of $0.28 for the quarter.

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Affirm vs Upstart

Comparison Snapshot

Why It's Moving

Affirm faces short seller pressure as Kerrisdale Capital flags business model risks ahead of key earnings.

Affirm faces short seller pressure as Kerrisdale Capital flags business model risks ahead of key earnings.