The Obvious Winners and the Smarter Bets
The most obvious place for that demand to go is to the current king of contract manufacturing, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, or TSM. They are the default choice for any tech giant that designs chips but doesn't want the colossal expense of building its own factories. With Intel producing less, TSM’s order book could certainly look healthier. It’s a straightforward and logical conclusion.
But I think the more interesting play is one step removed from the direct competition. It reminds me of the old gold rush adage. The people who made the most reliable fortunes weren’t the prospectors panning for gold, but the shrewd folks selling them the picks and shovels. In the chip world, the equipment suppliers are the ones selling the tools for the digital gold rush. Companies like ASML, which makes the almost magical lithography machines needed for cutting edge chips, or Lam Research, which provides other essential fabrication kit. As Intel’s rivals gear up to grab market share, they will likely need more of this highly specialised, eye wateringly expensive equipment. It’s a classic case of benefiting from the industry’s growth, regardless of which specific chip designer comes out on top.
