CME Group vs Intercontinental Exchange

This page compares CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., examining their business models, financial performance, and market context in a neutral, accessible way. It outlines how each organisation operates, generates revenue, and positions itself within the markets they serve. Educational content, not financial advice.

This page compares CME Group Inc. and Intercontinental Exchange, Inc., examining their business models, financial performance, and market context in a neutral, accessible way. It outlines how each org...

Comparison Snapshot

Key Financial Metrics

CME

Metric

ICE

$109.29B

Market Cap

$86.48B

-6.15%

Potential Profit

24.00%

Hold

Analyst Rating

Buy

Why It's Moving

CME Stock Warning Overstated: Record Highs and Earnings Beats Counter Analyst Downside Fears

Q4 revenue hit $1.65B, topping $1.64B forecasts by 8.1% year-over-year, driven by record volumes in metals, Bitcoin futures, and S&P 500 E-mini contracts that underscore CME's grip on high-volatility trading.
Earnings per share reached $2.77 versus $2.75 expected, with management spotlighting new 'event contracts' and booming retail sales in micro products to diversify revenue streams.
Announced $6.15 annual variable dividend plus $1.30 Q1 payout—totaling ~$4B for 2025 at 4.2% yield—while planning summer launch of single-stock futures on top names like NVIDIA and Tesla for capital-efficient exposure.

Sentiment:

🐃Bullish

ICE Delivers Stellar Q4 Beat and Dividend Boost, Fueling Analyst Optimism for 2026 Upside

Q4 adjusted EPS hit $1.71, topping estimates, while net revenues soared to a record $2.5B, highlighting resilient demand in exchanges and data services.
Fixed Income and Data Services revenues climbed 10% to $608M with operating income up 7%, signaling strength in high-margin clearing and analytics amid volatile markets.
Board approved Q1 2026 dividend of 52 cents per share—up 8%—plus $1.3B in 2025 buybacks, reinforcing capital return commitment as analysts pile into Buy ratings.

Sentiment:

🐃Bullish

CME Stock Warning Overstated: Record Highs and Earnings Beats Counter Analyst Downside Fears

Q4 revenue hit $1.65B, topping $1.64B forecasts by 8.1% year-over-year, driven by record volumes in metals, Bitcoin futures, and S&P 500 E-mini contracts that underscore CME's grip on high-volatility trading.
Earnings per share reached $2.77 versus $2.75 expected, with management spotlighting new 'event contracts' and booming retail sales in micro products to diversify revenue streams.
Announced $6.15 annual variable dividend plus $1.30 Q1 payout—totaling ~$4B for 2025 at 4.2% yield—while planning summer launch of single-stock futures on top names like NVIDIA and Tesla for capital-efficient exposure.

Sentiment:

🐃Bullish

ICE Delivers Stellar Q4 Beat and Dividend Boost, Fueling Analyst Optimism for 2026 Upside

Q4 adjusted EPS hit $1.71, topping estimates, while net revenues soared to a record $2.5B, highlighting resilient demand in exchanges and data services.
Fixed Income and Data Services revenues climbed 10% to $608M with operating income up 7%, signaling strength in high-margin clearing and analytics amid volatile markets.
Board approved Q1 2026 dividend of 52 cents per share—up 8%—plus $1.3B in 2025 buybacks, reinforcing capital return commitment as analysts pile into Buy ratings.

Sentiment:

🐃Bullish

Investment Analysis

CME Group

CME

Pros

CME Group is the world’s largest futures exchange by trading volume and notional value, benefiting from strong organic growth and high liquidity, which supports robust fee income.
CME has demonstrated resilience in volatile markets, with electronic trading and crypto product expansion further diversifying revenue streams and appealing to institutional and global clients.
The company maintains a strong capital position, enabling continued investment in technology, data services, and product expansion while keeping leverage relatively low compared to peers.

Considerations

CME’s revenue growth depends heavily on market volatility and trading volumes, exposing it to cyclical downturns and potential weakness in financial market activity.
Despite leadership in derivatives, CME faces intense competition from other exchanges and alternative trading venues, which may erode market share over time.
Regulatory scrutiny on derivatives and crypto markets could impose compliance costs or limit growth opportunities, particularly as global frameworks evolve.

Intercontinental Exchange

ICE

Pros

Intercontinental Exchange benefits from a diversified business model, including data services, listings, and market technology, which provide stable non-trading revenue streams.
ICE’s ownership of leading franchises like NYSE and clearinghouse operations provides a competitive moat and recurring income from essential financial infrastructure.
The company operates with a lower recent price volatility than CME, potentially appealing to investors seeking steadier equity performance in the exchange sector.

Considerations

ICE has underperformed CME in total shareholder return over the past year, with its share price facing significant bearish pressure and weaker momentum.
Higher leverage compared to CME, with a notably larger debt burden, may increase financial risk if interest rates rise or earnings falter.
ICE’s growth outlook is clouded by regulatory uncertainty and potential headwinds in fixed income and energy markets, core segments of its trading business.

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