AffirmUpstart

Affirm vs Upstart

Affirm built a buy-now-pay-later network on merchant integrations and FICO-light underwriting, while Upstart uses AI-driven models to originate personal and auto loans for bank partners. Both disrupte...

Why It's Moving

Affirm

Morgan Stanley crowns Affirm a top pick, fueling analyst buzz for explosive BNPL growth.

  • Q2 FY2026 earnings delivered $1.1B revenue and $130M net income, marking a profitability milestone after years of losses and boosting operating margins to 19.4%.
  • Amazon partnership extended through 2031, locking in a vital revenue stream and slashing merchant concentration risks while GMV soared 36% year-over-year.
  • Wall Street consensus tilts strongly bullish with multiple Buy upgrades, eyeing sustained expansion via Costco, Stripe deals and a potential bank charter to cut funding costs.
Sentiment:
🐃Bullish

Investment Analysis

Affirm

Affirm

AFRM

Pros

  • Affirm anticipates robust full-year earnings growth of 560% to $0.99 per share.
  • Recent quarterly results showed EPS of $0.23 beating consensus by $0.12 with revenue up 33.6%.
  • Analysts maintain Moderate Buy consensus with average price target of $89.17.

Considerations

  • Stock trades at elevated forward P/E of 82.63 versus industry average of 24.48.
  • Significant insider selling totalling over $57 million in past three months.
  • High beta of 3.57 exposes shares to substantial market volatility.

Pros

  • Upstart benefits from AI-driven lending platform enhancing credit assessment efficiency.
  • Expanding partnerships with banks and credit unions bolster loan origination volumes.
  • Recent profitability improvements stem from scaled operations and lower funding costs.

Considerations

  • Persistent sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations hampers loan demand.
  • Regulatory scrutiny over AI lending models poses execution risks.
  • Competitive pressures from traditional banks erode market share gains.

Affirm (AFRM) Next Earnings Date

Affirm Holdings (AFRM) is scheduled to report third quarter fiscal year 2026 results on May 7, 2026, after market close. The company will host a conference call and webcast at 2:00 PM PT on that same day to discuss the financial results. This earnings announcement will cover the third quarter of their fiscal 2026 year and represents the upcoming quarterly reporting event for investors tracking AFRM's performance.

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Frequently asked questions

AFRM
AFRM$67.54
vs
UPST
UPST$32.74