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FergusonChipotle

Ferguson vs Chipotle

Ferguson plc and Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. are contrasted on this page to explain their business models, financial performance, and market context in a neutral, accessible way. The comparison highl...

Why It's Moving

Chipotle

Chipotle Tackles Traffic Slump with Leadership Shifts and Athlete-Inspired Menu Buzz

  • Leadership shake-up appoints Ilene Eskenazi as Chief Legal and HR Officer while Stephanie Perdue steps in as interim CMO, streamlining operations during a search for permanent marketing head.
  • Launched gold foil-wrapped burritos and special items honoring top American athletes on January 15, aiming to spark short-term transaction lifts and excite core 25-35 age group.
  • Q3 results showed EPS of $0.29 in line with estimates but revenue slightly missing at $3B, with 'Recipe for Growth' focusing on operational tweaks to fix throughput issues without discounting.
Sentiment:
⚖️Neutral

Investment Analysis

Pros

  • Ferguson is the largest plumbing distributor and the second-largest HVAC distributor in North America with over 1,800 branches, serving more than 1 million customers.
  • The company showed organic revenue growth in the US of 6.1% for the year ended 2025, indicating ongoing demand in its core markets.
  • Ferguson maintains a dividend yield around 1.5% with a payout ratio of approximately 35%, reflecting a balanced approach to shareholder returns.

Considerations

  • High input costs impacted Ferguson significantly, with cost of goods sold rising 3.6% year over year in fiscal 2025, pressuring margins despite stable COGS as a percentage of sales.
  • The company carries a substantial long-term debt load of $3.75 billion with rising interest expenses reaching $190 million in 2025, which could constrain financial flexibility.
  • Ferguson's stock trades at a forward P/E of 21.79x, slightly above the industry average, which may increase valuation risk if market sentiment worsens.

Pros

  • Chipotle has a strong brand with a distinctive menu focusing on fresh, high-quality ingredients, supporting customer loyalty and premium pricing.
  • The company operates a large and growing restaurant base with over 2,800 locations and continues to expand both domestically and internationally.
  • Chipotle leverages technology and digital channels effectively, driving significant growth in online sales and increasing operational efficiency.

Considerations

  • Chipotle's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a 52-week range from around $30 to over $66, reflecting market uncertainty around growth prospects.
  • The company's valuation metrics, such as a P/E ratio around 28, imply expectations for continued strong growth which may be challenging to sustain amid rising input costs.
  • Chipotle is exposed to inflationary pressures on food and labour costs, which can impact profitability if price increases cannot be fully passed on to customers.

Chipotle (CMG) Next Earnings Date

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is scheduled to report its next earnings on February 3, 2026, covering the fourth quarter and full year of 2025. This date aligns with the company's official announcement and analyst estimates following the prior Q3 2025 release on October 29, 2025. Investors should monitor for the conference call details post-market close.

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