Affirm vs Upstart

Explore the key differences between Affirm Holdings Inc and Upstart Holdings, Inc. on this comprehensive comparison page. We delve into their respective business models, analyse financial performance, and examine the broader market context affecting their stock trajectories. Understand the unique aspects of each company's position within the lending technology sector. Educational content, not financial advice.

Explore the key differences between Affirm Holdings Inc and Upstart Holdings, Inc. on this comprehensive comparison page. We delve into their respective business models, analyse financial performance,...

Comparison Snapshot

Key Financial Metrics

AFRM

Metric

UPST

$22.68B

Market Cap

$4.47B

37.00%

Potential Profit

32.57%

Buy

Analyst Rating

Buy

Why It's Moving

Affirm surges on blockbuster Q1 earnings with profitability breakthrough and bold growth outlook.

Revenue jumped 34% to $933M, beating estimates by over $50M, while GAAP operating income hit $64M—proof Affirm is flipping losses into sustainable profits.
GMV guidance for Q2 set at $13-13.3B and full-year over $47.5B, fueled by 0% APR expansion, Affirm Card traction, and Amazon partnership locked through 2031.
Upsized $1.5B zero-interest convertible notes issuance provides firepower for growth, even as shares dipped recently before a sharp rebound.

Sentiment:

🐃Bullish

Affirm surges on blockbuster Q1 earnings with profitability breakthrough and bold growth outlook.

Revenue jumped 34% to $933M, beating estimates by over $50M, while GAAP operating income hit $64M—proof Affirm is flipping losses into sustainable profits.
GMV guidance for Q2 set at $13-13.3B and full-year over $47.5B, fueled by 0% APR expansion, Affirm Card traction, and Amazon partnership locked through 2031.
Upsized $1.5B zero-interest convertible notes issuance provides firepower for growth, even as shares dipped recently before a sharp rebound.

Sentiment:

🐃Bullish

Investment Analysis

Affirm

AFRM

Pros

Affirm anticipates robust full-year earnings growth of 560% to $0.99 per share.
Recent quarterly results showed EPS of $0.23 beating consensus by $0.12 with revenue up 33.6%.
Analysts maintain Moderate Buy consensus with average price target of $89.17.

Considerations

Stock trades at elevated forward P/E of 82.63 versus industry average of 24.48.
Significant insider selling totalling over $57 million in past three months.
High beta of 3.57 exposes shares to substantial market volatility.

Upstart

UPST

Pros

Upstart benefits from AI-driven lending platform enhancing credit assessment efficiency.
Expanding partnerships with banks and credit unions bolster loan origination volumes.
Recent profitability improvements stem from scaled operations and lower funding costs.

Considerations

Persistent sensitivity to interest rate fluctuations hampers loan demand.
Regulatory scrutiny over AI lending models poses execution risks.
Competitive pressures from traditional banks erode market share gains.

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