Marathon PetroleumEOG Resources

Marathon Petroleum vs EOG Resources

Marathon Petroleum Corporation and EOG Resources, Inc. This page compares their business models, financial performance, and market context in a neutral, accessible way. It explains how each company op...

Why It's Moving

Marathon Petroleum

Marathon Petroleum's Q1 Earnings Reflect Strategic Growth Amid Margin Pressures

  • Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA dropped to $2.0 billion from $3.3 billion a year ago, reflecting the second largest planned maintenance quarter and softer refining margins at $13.38 per barrel versus $19.35 previously.
  • Midstream segment EBITDA grew 8%, supported by expansions in Permian to Gulf Coast pipelines and investments in natural gas and NGL infrastructure, underpinning growth in producer demand.
  • Returned $1.3 billion to shareholders in Q1; reaffirmed $1.25 billion 2025 capital plan focused 70% on high-return projects at key refineries and midstream expansions, aiming for mid-single-digit MPLX EBITDA growth and increased distributions.
Sentiment:
⚖️Neutral
EOG Resources

EOG Resources Surpasses Q3 Free Cash Flow Expectations Amid Strategic Expansion and Strong Market Outlook

  • Q3 free cash flow of $1.4 billion exceeded guidance, driven by operational excellence and cost control.
  • Successful acquisition of Encino enhances production mix and accelerates cash flow growth potential.
  • Outlook highlights sustained support for oil prices due to tightening spare capacity and rising LNG demand, supporting long-term value creation.
Sentiment:
🐃Bullish

Which Baskets Do They Appear In?

Oil Price Shift Overview: OPEC+ Production Strategy

Oil Price Shift Overview: OPEC+ Production Strategy

OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production is set to lower global prices, pressuring U.S. shale producers while defending its own market share. This scenario creates a potential investment opportunity in fuel-dependent sectors like transportation and manufacturing that stand to gain from reduced energy costs.

Published: September 9, 2025

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Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas

Fuel up with investment opportunities in the energy markets. This collection features carefully selected stocks from industry giants and innovators, chosen by professional analysts for their potential in the growing $6.93 trillion global oil and gas market.

Published: May 15, 2025

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Investment Analysis

Pros

  • Marathon Petroleum reported a significant revenue beat in Q3 2025, with revenue approximately $35.85 billion, nearly $3 billion above forecasts.
  • The company has a diversified business with refining, marketing, midstream, and renewable diesel operations across multiple US regions.
  • Management is optimistic about sustained strong refining margins due to demand strength, low inventory levels, constrained supply, and improving differentials.

Considerations

  • Q3 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $3.01 missed analyst expectations of $3.18, causing negative market reaction and share price decline.
  • The stock appears overvalued to some analysts despite strong revenue, with recent earnings disappointment raising concerns about profitability trends.
  • Marathon’s share price has shown short-term declines and forecast models predict a slight decrease over the next year, indicating potential price headwinds.

Pros

  • EOG Resources maintains strong operational efficiency and profitability in upstream exploration and production activities.
  • The company benefits from a substantial resource base and reserves, supporting long-term production growth potential.
  • EOG has a history of maintaining a robust balance sheet with solid liquidity, supporting capital expenditures and shareholder returns.

Considerations

  • EOG Resources is exposed to commodity price volatility, which can lead to earnings unpredictability in volatile oil and gas markets.
  • The company’s upstream focus makes it more sensitive to regulatory changes and environmental policies impacting fossil fuel production.
  • Recent stock performance has been more volatile and shows larger drawdowns compared to some integrated downstream peers, indicating higher risk.

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