Mind The Turnaround Trap
Of course, one must not let romantic buyout fantasies cloud basic common sense.
Contrast Nike's recent fumbling with Lululemon, which has largely dodged the wholesale quagmire by keeping its premium customers on a tighter, direct-to-consumer leash. The apparel sector is not sinking as one uniform mass, it is cleaving in two. Those who adapt can thrive, while the sluggish linger indefinitely on the discount rack.
Speculating on corporate marriages is always a hazardous game. Turnaround plans may flounder, cost savings frequently fail to materialise, and prospective buyers can vanish at the first tremor of consumer weakness. Capital is inevitably at risk when hunting through the bargain bin, and betting on takeover premiums might leave investors nursing painful losses.
Still, watching the industry scramble will be entertaining. Hill could yet steady the ship, but until consumer appetite returns, the corporate circling will only grow louder.