When Pay Cheques are Steady, So Are Shopping Trolleys
Every week, it seems, we’re battered by a storm of economic data. Inflation figures, central bank minutes, manufacturing indices. It’s enough to make your head spin. But to me, most of it is just noise. If you want to understand where the economy might be heading, you need to ignore the clamour and listen for one clear signal, the quiet hum of people going to work. And right now, that hum is getting rather loud.
Jobless claims in the US have dropped to a level that has frankly surprised the pessimists. When fewer people are lining up for unemployment benefits, it tells a very simple story. People have jobs, they expect to keep them, and they feel secure. This isn't just a number on a spreadsheet. It’s the foundational confidence that turns a window shopper into a paying customer.