The Bargain Hunters Stick Around
We all know the inflation story. It's tedious, but it dictates consumer behaviour. You might assume that shoppers will abandon their newfound thriftiness just because inflation cools slightly. I highly doubt it. Shoppers who traded down to discount rails during the worst of the cost of living squeeze aren't rushing back to premium boutiques. They're staying put.
This creates a fascinating dynamic.
Off price retailers like Ross Stores and Burlington are sweeping up surplus stock and flogging it at a discount. It's a brilliant, gritty model that works well when household budgets are tight. But don't mistake a good model for a safe bet. If freight costs spike or consumer confidence entirely collapses, even the bargain bins will feel the chill. There is no such thing as zero risk in retail.