Why the Mongolian Copper Stand-Off Might Reshape Mining Returns, Though Risks Remain
A Billion Dollar Game of Chicken
Whenever a government suddenly realises quite how much money is sitting beneath its soil, the rules of the game tend to change. I have watched this play out for decades, and it never fails to amuse me in a rather cynical way. Rio Tinto is currently locked in a fascinating stalemate with Mongolia over the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine. The government wants to slice the interest rate on a massive loan that Rio provided to cover construction overruns. It is resource nationalism at its most predictable. As politicians eye up bigger pieces of the pie, these friction points could send ripples right through the global copper market.