TDBBVA

TD vs BBVA

TD vs BBVA: This page compares the two banks’ business models, financial performance, and market context in a neutral, accessible manner. It outlines how each organisation approaches growth, risk, and...

Why It's Moving

TD

TD Bank surges on earnings beat and analyst upgrades signaling resilient growth amid banking rally.

  • Q4 earnings crushed forecasts at C$2.18 EPS, underscoring robust performance across Canadian and U.S. retail segments despite macro headwinds.
  • Bank of America hiked price target to C$132 on December 5, implying 8% upside and reflecting optimism on TD's operational streamlining.
  • Stock jumped C$1.90 to C$121.99 with elevated volume, extending a 4.9% weekly gain amid sector rotation into undervalued banks.
Sentiment:
🐃Bullish
BBVA

BBVA strikes game-changing AI alliance with OpenAI to revolutionize banking services.

  • BBVA partners with OpenAI to integrate ChatGPT Enterprise bank-wide, accelerating a new AI-powered productivity model as highlighted by Chair Carlos Torres Vila.
  • The alliance enables direct integration of BBVA's products into ChatGPT, with demos already live in Italy and Germany for seamless user interactions.
  • OpenAI CEO Sam Altman praises BBVA's rapid AI adoption, signaling potential for industry-leading transformation and enhanced customer-centric banking.
Sentiment:
🐃Bullish

Which Baskets Do They Appear In?

Banking On Shareholder Returns

Banking On Shareholder Returns

Bank of America's new $40 billion stock buyback program highlights a broader trend of major financial institutions returning capital to shareholders. This theme identifies other large banks that may follow suit, offering similar buyback or dividend-based value.

Published: July 24, 2025

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Investment Analysis

TD

TD

TD

Pros

  • TD operates a diversified business model spanning Canadian Personal and Commercial Banking, U.S. Retail, Wealth Management, Insurance, and Wholesale Banking, reducing concentration risk.
  • The bank has strong profitability with a net income of $14.69 billion and an EPS of 8.44, supported by consistent loan growth and projected net interest income increase.
  • TD maintains a solid dividend yield of 3.66%, providing income appeal, with several analysts recommending a buy and a price target implying approximately 29% upside.

Considerations

  • Analyst price forecasts for TD in 2025 show mixed signals, with some predicting a slight share price decline due to near-term volatility and uncertain macro conditions.
  • TD faces increased expenses due to anti-money laundering regulatory compliance, which could weigh on earnings and make 2025 operationally challenging.
  • Its stock price has a beta of 1.0, indicating market-level volatility exposure, which may add risk during economic downturns or financial sector disruptions.
BBVA

BBVA

BBVA

Pros

  • BBVA is trading significantly below its estimated fair value by over 20%, indicating potential upside relative to its intrinsic valuation using discounted cash flow models.
  • The bank has a strong earnings momentum and is forecasted to continue improving capital returns, supporting long-term profitability growth.
  • BBVA's profitability is solid with a PE ratio around 9.6 and earnings of €10.12 billion, suggesting efficient operational performance relative to the sector.

Considerations

  • BBVA’s PEG ratio of 2.8 indicates the stock may be somewhat overvalued on growth-adjusted terms despite current undervaluation based on price to earnings.
  • The bank operates in regions that may have regulatory and macroeconomic volatility, which could introduce execution risk and impact financial results.
  • BBVA's valuation metrics show mixed signals with a fair price estimate below current market price, possibly reflecting investor caution or sector risk.

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