Marathon PetroleumTC Energy

Marathon Petroleum vs TC Energy

Marathon Petroleum Corporation and TransCanada Corporation are compared on business models, financial performance, and market context. This page presents an accessible, neutral view of how each compan...

Why It's Moving

Marathon Petroleum

Marathon Petroleum powers through Q3 with robust cash flow and strategic midstream growth despite refining headwinds.

  • Refining & Marketing adjusted EBITDA hit $1.76 billion, bolstered by $427 million ethanol JV sale and $484 million BANGL acquisition gain, offsetting Gulf Coast and West Coast margin pressures.
  • MPLX to deliver $2.8 billion annualized distributions to MPC, funding dividends, capex, and extra capital allocationβ€”a standout edge in energy.
  • Midstream expansions like Traverse Pipeline and Gulf Coast Fractionators ramp up Permian-to-Gulf value chain, tapping rising producer demand for long-term growth.
Sentiment:
πŸƒBullish
TC Energy

TC Energy Rewards Shareholders with 25th Straight Dividend Hike Amid Mixed Earnings Signals

  • Dividend raised to $0.85 quarterly (annualized $3.40, ~6.3% yield), but high 106% payout ratio sparks sustainability questions.
  • Q4 EPS hit $0.56 as expected, yet revenue of $1.86B missed $2.63B forecasts, pressuring near-term sentiment.
  • Unusually high put options volume surged 1,446% above average, signaling trader bets on potential downside despite resilient stock performance.
Sentiment:
βš–οΈNeutral

Which Baskets Do They Appear In?

Fueling Profits: Beneficiaries Of OPEC+ Production Policy

Fueling Profits: Beneficiaries Of OPEC+ Production Policy

OPEC+ is expected to maintain its policy of gradually increasing oil production, aiming to stabilize global energy markets. This could lead to moderated fuel costs, creating a potential advantage for companies in sectors like transportation and manufacturing where fuel is a major expense.

Published: July 25, 2025

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Investment Analysis

Pros

  • Reported strong third-quarter 2025 revenue of approximately $35.85 billion, beating forecasts by nearly $3 billion.
  • Maintained a high refinery utilization rate of 95%, processing 2.8 million barrels of crude per day indicating operational efficiency.
  • Increased dividends by 10%, returning $3.2 billion to shareholders in Q3, demonstrating financial strength and shareholder return focus.

Considerations

  • Missed adjusted earnings per share expectations in Q3 2025, with $3.01 versus analyst estimates of $3.18, disappointing investors.
  • Experienced a significant stock price drop following Q3 earnings results, reflecting market concern about profitability performance.
  • Shares appear overvalued relative to fair value estimates despite supportive margin environment, suggesting limited upside potential.

Pros

  • Has a long history of shareholder value creation with an average annual return of 14% since 2000.
  • Common shares traded on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange, providing liquidity and investor access.
  • Operates a diversified portfolio including pipelines and energy infrastructure which support stable long-term cash flows.

Considerations

  • Exposed to regulatory and geopolitical risks inherent in cross-border energy infrastructure investments.
  • Subject to commodity price volatility and changes in energy demand that can affect cash flow stability and project economics.
  • Capital-intensive operations carry execution risks including project delays and cost overruns impacting profitability.

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