Green PlainsClean Energy Fuels

Green Plains vs Clean Energy Fuels

This page compares Green Plains Inc and Clean Energy Fuels Corp, examining business models, financial performance, and market context in a neutral, accessible way. It lays out the factors shaping each...

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Investment Analysis

Green Plains

Pros

  • Green Plains achieved a Q3 2025 EPS beat of $0.17 versus an expected loss, indicating operational resilience amid sector challenges.
  • The company reduced debt by $220 million and is investing in new carbon capture facilities to enhance long-term sustainability and value.
  • Green Plains anticipates significant future benefits from $150 million in Advantage Nebraska programs and $188 million in 45Z tax credits starting 2026.

Considerations

  • Green Plains' revenue declined 22.8% year-over-year to $508.5 million in Q3 2025, raising concerns about near-term growth and profitability.
  • The company's valuation and stock price have faced downgrades due to skepticism around accounting for CO2 credits and uncertain timing of related cash flows.
  • Crush margins are expected to contract seasonally, and financial health scores rate as only fair, highlighting ongoing execution and profitability risks.
Clean Energy Fuels

Pros

  • Clean Energy Fuels is a leading provider of renewable natural gas and low-carbon fuel solutions with strong growth prospects as demand for green energy rises.
  • The company benefits from contracts with major transportation fleets and strategic partnerships supporting expanded RNG infrastructure.
  • Recent investments in expanding RNG production capacity position Clean Energy to capitalize on increasing regulatory mandates and carbon credit programs.

Considerations

  • Clean Energy Fuels faces execution risks tied to the complexity and capital intensity of RNG infrastructure development.
  • The company’s financial results are sensitive to fluctuations in natural gas prices and government incentives, making earnings volatile.
  • Competition is intensifying in the renewable fuels sector, which could pressure market share and margins over the coming years.

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