The Unlikely Winners of a Slower Transition
The list of potential beneficiaries is longer than you might think. The energy giants, for instance, can probably breathe a little easier. Sustained demand for petrol means their business model might just have a few more decades of life in it than the prophets of doom were predicting. Refiners, suppliers, and even the local garage could see their relevance extended.
Then there are the car dealerships. In a world of one-size-fits-all electric models sold online, their future looked bleak. But in a complex market with petrol, diesel, hybrid, and electric options, suddenly a knowledgeable salesperson is worth their weight in gold. They are the ones who can guide confused customers through the maze of choices, and that complexity is good for business. The used car market, too, may find more stability with hybrids and traditional cars that do not suffer the same terrifying depreciation as their electric counterparts.
Of course, none of this is a sure thing. Investing always carries risk, and the automotive sector is a notoriously bumpy ride. Governments could change the rules overnight with new subsidies or regulations. A sudden breakthrough in battery technology could make all this talk of a slowdown seem quaint. But to me, the current trend seems clear. The EV revolution has not been cancelled, it has just been postponed. And in that delay, there is a very interesting opportunity.
