CarnivalExpedia

Carnival vs Expedia

Carnival plc and Expedia Inc. This page compares their business models, financial performance, and market context to help readers understand how these travel and leisure brands operate in their respec...

Why It's Moving

Carnival

CUK Dips Amid Cruise Sector Pullback Despite Strong Underlying Momentum.

  • Stock fluctuated -1.5% off the daily high with volume at 805K versus a 1.69M average, signaling cautious trading in the sector[1].
  • Year-to-date gains of 18% from $22.51 highlight sustained rebound, though recent 3-month slip mirrors CCL's 18% drop despite rising earnings[1][2].
  • Q3 fiscal 2025 return on invested capital hit 13%—the highest since 2007—underscoring efficient capital use amid strong bookings[4].
Sentiment:
⚖️Neutral
Expedia

Expedia rallies as upbeat Q3 results, a dividend and guidance lift investor sentiment

  • Earnings beat and profitability: Expedia posted a notable profit recovery with GAAP net income and adjusted EPS up year-over-year, and adjusted EBITDA and margins expanding — a sign the company is converting revenue growth into stronger operating profitability (Q3 results).
  • Raised guidance and demand trends: Management lifted full‑year 2025 guidance for bookings, revenue and EBITDA margin expansion, implying management sees sustained travel demand and improving unit economics heading into 2026 (guidance raise).
  • Shareholder returns and corporate moves: The company declared a $0.40 quarterly cash dividend and continued sizable share repurchases (hundreds of millions in the quarter and over $1B year‑to‑date), signaling confidence in cash flow and returning capital to investors (dividend and buybacks).
Sentiment:
🐃Bullish

Which Baskets Do They Appear In?

Ephemeral Experiences

Ephemeral Experiences

Invest in companies creating lasting memories through fleeting moments. These carefully selected stocks represent leaders in the experience economy, from sold-out concerts to dream vacations. As consumers increasingly value doing over owning, these companies are positioned to capture this powerful spending shift.

Published: June 17, 2025

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Experience Economy

Experience Economy

Companies creating memorable experiences are capturing a growing share of consumer spending. This carefully curated collection includes stocks selected by expert analysts that are positioned to benefit from the shift toward travel, entertainment, and leisure activities.

Published: June 17, 2025

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Wanderlust Economy

Wanderlust Economy

Explore investment opportunities in companies powering global travel experiences. These carefully selected stocks represent the full journey ecosystem, from booking platforms to airlines, cruise lines, and hospitality. Travel industry innovators poised for growth as exploration rebounds worldwide.

Published: June 17, 2025

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Investment Analysis

Pros

  • Carnival has demonstrated a strong revenue recovery post-pandemic, with revenue growing over 7% expected in 2025 and further growth forecasted in 2026.
  • Earnings per share (EPS) have shown significant improvement, with a 50% increase expected in 2025 and continued growth into 2026.
  • Industry analysts have a strong buy consensus on Carnival, with a price target implying nearly 26% upside from current levels.

Considerations

  • Carnival faces high uncertainty related to demand fluctuations and external factors affecting travel and leisure industries.
  • The company's valuation shows some risk with a forward price-to-earnings ratio around 13, which may limit upside compared to growth peers.
  • Carnival carries a sizable debt load, evidenced by recent issuance of $1.25 billion in senior unsecured notes, which could pressure financial flexibility.

Pros

  • Expedia benefits from its strong position as a leading online travel agency with diversified offerings beyond cruises, including hotel and transportation bookings.
  • The company has good exposure to growing global travel demand recovery, supported by increasing consumer bookings in leisure and business travels.
  • Expedia’s market cap near $22 billion reflects a solid scale for investing in new technologies and expanding market share globally.

Considerations

  • Expedia faces intense competition across online travel platforms and cruise booking sectors, including direct competition with companies like Carnival for cruise customers.
  • The highly cyclical nature of travel demand exposes Expedia to economic downturns or geopolitical events that can quickly reduce consumer travel spending.
  • Profitability can be pressured by rising costs in technology, advertising, and customer acquisition to maintain market position in a competitive environment.

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