The Shovel Sellers and the Spanish Conquistadors
So, who stands to benefit from this long overdue shake up? My money, figuratively speaking, is on two groups. First, you have the Spanish banks. Institutions like Santander and BBVA have been playing the cross border merger game for years. They have the experience, the ambition, and the battle scars to prove it. They understand that in modern banking, size matters, and they seem ready to lead the charge.
Then you have the investment banks, the well dressed advisors who will be charging handsome fees to make all these complex deals happen. Let’s be honest, a big, messy, cross border bank merger is a gold rush for these firms. They get paid handsomely for their advice, regardless of whether the merger actually creates any value in the long run. It’s a classic case of selling shovels during a gold rush, a strategy neatly captured in investment themes like the European Banking M&A. This approach allows one to potentially benefit from the activity itself, without having to pick the ultimate winner.
