When One Door Slams, Another Opens
Let’s be clear. The sanctions being levelled against Russian energy giants are designed to create a squeeze. They are a deliberate attempt to disrupt the flow of oil and gas, creating a vacuum in the global market. Now, markets, much like nature, abhor a vacuum. When one of the world’s largest producers finds its taps being turned off, that supply has to come from somewhere else. It’s simple arithmetic.
This isn’t just about the price of a barrel of crude potentially ticking upwards, though that is certainly part of the story. I think the more interesting angle is the fundamental reallocation of market share. For years, the board was set in a particular way. Now, the pieces are being scattered. Companies that were perhaps seen as steady, reliable players suddenly find themselves in a prime position to fill a rather large, Russia-shaped hole in global supply.