The Obvious Winners, and Their Baggage
The most obvious port of call is, naturally, the airlines. Jet fuel is the lifeblood of aviation, and it can account for a third of an airline’s entire operating budget. When its price plummets, airline balance sheets can suddenly look much healthier. Companies like United, Delta, and Southwest could see their margins expand beautifully.
But let’s be honest, investing in airlines is not for the faint of heart. It’s an industry that seems to have a unique talent for turning good news into a crisis. Lower fuel costs are fantastic, but they don’t solve labour disputes, fierce competition, or the constant need to buy ruinously expensive new planes. So, while they may benefit, I think it’s a rather crowded and bumpy trade. The same logic applies to the broader transport sector. Cheaper diesel is a godsend for trucking and shipping firms, but these are tough, low margin businesses at the best of times.