TPG vs Carlyle
TPG, INC. and Carlyle Group, The are the focus of this page. It compares business models, financial performance, and market context in a neutral, accessible way. The comparison highlights how each organisation approaches growth, risk, and opportunity within different sectors and markets. Educational content, not financial advice.
TPG, INC. and Carlyle Group, The are the focus of this page. It compares business models, financial performance, and market context in a neutral, accessible way. The comparison highlights how each org...
Investment Analysis
TPG
TPG
Pros
- TPG's assets under management grew 20% year-over-year to $286 billion, reflecting strong investment performance and market positioning.
- The company has expanded its investment capabilities organically, notably through the Treco acquisition which targets real estate credit with attractive risk-adjusted returns.
- Analysts hold a consensus 'Buy' rating with an average price target suggesting moderate upside potential around 5-7% over the next year.
Considerations
- TPG recently missed earnings and revenue forecasts in Q3 2025, with EPS and revenue below analyst expectations, leading to significant stock price declines.
- Its stock shows a beta of 1.53, indicating a volatility 53% greater than the S&P 500, which exposes investors to above-average market risk.
- Long-term price forecasts show wide variability, reflecting market uncertainty and execution risk in realizing projected growth.
Carlyle
CG
Pros
- The Carlyle Group has higher revenue and net income compared to TPG, with $5.53 billion in revenue and $1.26 billion net income, indicating strong profitability.
- It benefits from a broader global presence with operations in over 29 offices across five continents, supporting diversified growth opportunities.
- Analysts maintain a 'Buy' rating consensus with a 12-month price target implying approximately 7% upside potential and a dividend yield near 2.4%.
Considerations
- Carlyle's stock exhibits higher volatility with a beta around 2.0, doubling market risk compared to the S&P 500 benchmark.
- The firm operates in a highly cyclical private equity market, which can affect earnings visibility and capital raise execution amid economic cycles.
- Investor returns may face headwinds from ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and regulatory scrutiny affecting the finance sector globally.
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Which Baskets Do They Appear In?
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