TerniumCMC

Ternium vs CMC

Ternium is a Latin American flat steel producer with a dominant position in Mexico and the Southern Cone, while CMC Steel operates steel mini-mills and downstream fabrication businesses across the Uni...

Investment Analysis

Pros

  • CMC's recent acquisition of Foley Products Company for $1.84 billion enhances its precast platform, positioning it as the #3 U.S. precast player with immediate scale benefits.
  • The company maintains strong liquidity with a current ratio of 2.82 and expects to reduce net debt/EBITDA below 2.0x within 18 months after the acquisition.
  • CMC has a long history of stable shareholder returns, highlighted by 244 consecutive quarterly dividends and a steady dividend yield around 1.25%.

Considerations

  • Q3 FY2025 net earnings declined to $83.1 million from $119.4 million year-over-year, indicating recent profitability pressures.
  • The company's interest coverage ratio is moderate at 3.11, which could constrain financial flexibility amid rising debt from the recent acquisition.
  • CMC operates in a cyclical steel industry with exposure to fluctuating raw material prices and construction sector demand, potentially increasing earnings volatility.
CMC

CMC

CMC

Pros

  • Ternium has a diversified steel and mining business with operations spanning Mexico, Brazil, and Southern regions, providing geographic growth opportunities.
  • Despite recent earnings volatility, Ternium exhibits strong asset growth momentum of over 32% in the trailing 12 months, indicating expansion efforts.
  • The stock has strong analyst sentiment and technical interest, reflected in an overall positive consensus and increased hedge fund holdings recently.

Considerations

  • Ternium reported a significant earnings miss with a negative EPS of -$3.71 in its last quarter, adversely impacting its share price.
  • The company shows a negative trailing 12-month return on equity at -5.51%, suggesting challenges in profitability and capital efficiency.
  • Ternium's stock price has underperformed both the US metals and mining industry and the broader market over the past year, showing weak relative performance.

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TX
TX$44.00
vs
CMC
CMC$69.38