Newmont vs Freeport-McMoRan
Newmont digs gold from mines across four continents and sits at the top of the senior gold producer pecking order while Freeport-McMoRan dominates global copper production and rides the electrification thematic. Both companies run massive mining operations with long reserve lives and meaningful exposure to commodity price swings. Newmont vs Freeport-McMoRan draws the line between safe-haven precious metals and the industrial copper demand story investors use to position around inflation, energy transition, and economic cycles.
Newmont digs gold from mines across four continents and sits at the top of the senior gold producer pecking order while Freeport-McMoRan dominates global copper production and rides the electrificatio...
Why It's Moving
Newmont Faces Technical Headwinds as Analysts Warn of Near-Term Weakness and Downside Risk
- Raymond James identified negative price momentum and early selling pressure, warning that a close below the 50-day moving average near $103.65 could confirm a 1-3 month corrective phase with potential downside to $97.99
- Support levels remain critical: a break below $97.99 could open the door to a test of the 40-week moving average around $79.49, representing a 29.6% decline from current levels
- Despite near-term caution, analysts maintain a positive longer-term outlook, noting Newmont's solid cash flow and lower jurisdictional risk make any weakness an attractive entry point for patient investors
FCX Stock Warning: Why Analysts See -17% Downside Risk
- Wells Fargo slashed its price target to $68 from $77, citing slower Grasberg ramp-up that forced a 300 million pound cut in 2026/27 copper sales, triggering a sharp intraday drop.
- Multiple firms like Scotiabank, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley trimmed targets to around $66-$68, pushing consensus lower and highlighting mixed fundamentals despite an overweight rating.
- Valuation models flag FCX as overvalued at $67+ versus intrinsic estimates near $47, underscoring vulnerability to sector headwinds and insider selling.
Newmont Faces Technical Headwinds as Analysts Warn of Near-Term Weakness and Downside Risk
- Raymond James identified negative price momentum and early selling pressure, warning that a close below the 50-day moving average near $103.65 could confirm a 1-3 month corrective phase with potential downside to $97.99
- Support levels remain critical: a break below $97.99 could open the door to a test of the 40-week moving average around $79.49, representing a 29.6% decline from current levels
- Despite near-term caution, analysts maintain a positive longer-term outlook, noting Newmont's solid cash flow and lower jurisdictional risk make any weakness an attractive entry point for patient investors
FCX Stock Warning: Why Analysts See -17% Downside Risk
- Wells Fargo slashed its price target to $68 from $77, citing slower Grasberg ramp-up that forced a 300 million pound cut in 2026/27 copper sales, triggering a sharp intraday drop.
- Multiple firms like Scotiabank, Deutsche Bank, and Morgan Stanley trimmed targets to around $66-$68, pushing consensus lower and highlighting mixed fundamentals despite an overweight rating.
- Valuation models flag FCX as overvalued at $67+ versus intrinsic estimates near $47, underscoring vulnerability to sector headwinds and insider selling.
Investment Analysis
Newmont
NEM
Pros
- Newmont delivered strong Q3 2025 results, with EPS and revenue exceeding expectations and record free cash flow of $1.6 billion.
- The company maintains a robust balance sheet, ending the quarter with $5.6 billion in cash and near-zero net debt.
- Newmont is the world's largest gold miner, with diversified operations across multiple continents and a clear production growth target for 2028.
Considerations
- Analyst price targets for Newmont show a wide range, indicating uncertainty about future stock performance and potential downside risk.
- Insider share sales have occurred recently, which may raise questions about executive confidence in near-term prospects.
- The stock has experienced high volatility, and some forecasts suggest a potential price decline over the next few months.
Pros
- Freeport-McMoRan benefits from exposure to copper, a metal with strong demand growth driven by electrification and renewable energy trends.
- The company has a significant market capitalisation and operates some of the world's largest copper and gold mines.
- Freeport-McMoRan maintains a solid dividend policy, providing regular returns to shareholders despite commodity price fluctuations.
Considerations
- Freeport-McMoRan's earnings and stock price are highly sensitive to copper price volatility, which can be influenced by global macroeconomic factors.
- The company carries a higher debt burden compared to sector peers, increasing financial risk during periods of low commodity prices.
- Environmental and regulatory risks are elevated due to the scale and geographic spread of Freeport-McMoRan's mining operations.
Newmont (NEM) Next Earnings Date
Newmont Corporation (NEM) most recently reported Q1 2026 earnings on April 23, 2026, after market close. The next earnings release, covering Q2 2026, is estimated between July 23 and July 27, 2026, based on the company's historical reporting pattern, though no official date has been announced. Investors should monitor for updates as the quarter progresses.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Next Earnings Date
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) most recently reported Q1 2026 earnings on April 23, 2026. The next earnings release, covering Q2 2026, is estimated for July 22-23, 2026, based on the company's historical quarterly pattern, though no official date has been announced. Investors should monitor for confirmation as the date approaches.
Newmont (NEM) Next Earnings Date
Newmont Corporation (NEM) most recently reported Q1 2026 earnings on April 23, 2026, after market close. The next earnings release, covering Q2 2026, is estimated between July 23 and July 27, 2026, based on the company's historical reporting pattern, though no official date has been announced. Investors should monitor for updates as the quarter progresses.
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) Next Earnings Date
Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) most recently reported Q1 2026 earnings on April 23, 2026. The next earnings release, covering Q2 2026, is estimated for July 22-23, 2026, based on the company's historical quarterly pattern, though no official date has been announced. Investors should monitor for confirmation as the date approaches.
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