ASML vs Applied Materials
ASML holds a near-monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, making it the unavoidable bottleneck in advanced chip manufacturing, while Applied Materials supplies a broader suite of deposition and etch equipment across a wider range of fabs. Both companies profit directly from the semiconductor industry's relentless capital spending cycles. The ASML vs Applied Materials comparison unpacks how monopoly pricing power compares to diversified product breadth when semiconductor capex surges and contracts.
ASML holds a near-monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, making it the unavoidable bottleneck in advanced chip manufacturing, while Applied Materials supplies a broader suite of deposit...
Why It's Moving
ASML Stock Warning: Why Analysts See -21% Downside Risk
- Q1 earnings beat expectations on surging AI chip demand, but Q2 revenue forecast of $10.2B missed analyst hopes of $10.6B, signaling weaker short-term momentum.
- China sales, nearly one-third of 2025 revenue from older DUV machines and servicing, face headwinds from tightening export curbs like the proposed MATCH Act.
- Analysts trimmed 2026 growth views amid geopolitical tensions and tariff risks, highlighting uncertainty in delivering robust expansion despite AI tailwinds.
AMAT Stock Warning: Why Analysts See -25% Downside Risk
- Analysts' average target of $209 points to -8.57% downside, but low-end forecasts at $150 highlight 25% potential plunge if support levels break.
- Stock down 6.18% over last 10 days with sell signals from pivot tops and MACD, volume rising on falling prices signaling heightened short-term risk.
- Key risks from cyclical chip demand, U.S.-China export curbs, and concentrated customers weigh on outlook despite past revenue resilience.
ASML Stock Warning: Why Analysts See -21% Downside Risk
- Q1 earnings beat expectations on surging AI chip demand, but Q2 revenue forecast of $10.2B missed analyst hopes of $10.6B, signaling weaker short-term momentum.
- China sales, nearly one-third of 2025 revenue from older DUV machines and servicing, face headwinds from tightening export curbs like the proposed MATCH Act.
- Analysts trimmed 2026 growth views amid geopolitical tensions and tariff risks, highlighting uncertainty in delivering robust expansion despite AI tailwinds.
AMAT Stock Warning: Why Analysts See -25% Downside Risk
- Analysts' average target of $209 points to -8.57% downside, but low-end forecasts at $150 highlight 25% potential plunge if support levels break.
- Stock down 6.18% over last 10 days with sell signals from pivot tops and MACD, volume rising on falling prices signaling heightened short-term risk.
- Key risks from cyclical chip demand, U.S.-China export curbs, and concentrated customers weigh on outlook despite past revenue resilience.
Investment Analysis
ASML
ASML
Pros
- ASML holds 90% market share in lithography, particularly EUV technology essential for advanced chips.
- Strong ties with top customers TSMC, Samsung and Intel ensure long-term revenue stability.
- Past decade revenue growth outpaces peers, driven by lithography demand in next-gen nodes.
Considerations
- Gross margins expected to decline to 50-52% in Q3 due to High NA system revenues and fewer upgrades.
- Higher valuation metrics including P/E of 40 and P/S of 11.67 compared to diversified peers.
- Narrow focus on lithography exposes it more to industry cycle fluctuations than broader competitors.
Pros
- Diversified portfolio across deposition, etching and metrology provides exposure to multiple chip production stages.
- Advanced node revenues exceeded $2.5 billion in fiscal 2024, projected to double in 2025 from AI demand.
- Stronger near-term earnings stability and lower valuation enhance resilience amid sector volatility.
Considerations
- Recent quarterly sales declined 3.48% year-over-year, lagging behind some industry peers.
- Slower long-term growth trajectory compared to lithography specialists like ASML over the past decade.
- Higher total debt at $6.76 billion relative to cash reserves limits financial flexibility.
ASML (ASML) Next Earnings Date
ASML's next earnings release is scheduled for July 15, 2026 before market open, covering the second quarter of 2026. Analysts are projecting earnings per share of $8.08 for this period. The company will hold a conference call for investors following the earnings announcement to discuss financial results and outlook. This release comes approximately three months after the company's most recent Q1 2026 earnings report on April 15, 2026.
Applied Materials (AMAT) Next Earnings Date
Applied Materials (AMAT) is expected to report earnings on May 14, 2026, after market close. This release will cover the second quarter of fiscal 2026 (Q2 FY2026), following the most recent Q1 FY2026 results announced on February 12, 2026. Investors should anticipate a conference call shortly thereafter to review performance and outlook.
ASML (ASML) Next Earnings Date
ASML's next earnings release is scheduled for July 15, 2026 before market open, covering the second quarter of 2026. Analysts are projecting earnings per share of $8.08 for this period. The company will hold a conference call for investors following the earnings announcement to discuss financial results and outlook. This release comes approximately three months after the company's most recent Q1 2026 earnings report on April 15, 2026.
Applied Materials (AMAT) Next Earnings Date
Applied Materials (AMAT) is expected to report earnings on May 14, 2026, after market close. This release will cover the second quarter of fiscal 2026 (Q2 FY2026), following the most recent Q1 FY2026 results announced on February 12, 2026. Investors should anticipate a conference call shortly thereafter to review performance and outlook.
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