Marathon Petroleum vs TC Energy
Marathon Petroleum Corporation and TransCanada Corporation are compared on business models, financial performance, and market context. This page presents an accessible, neutral view of how each company creates value, operates within its sector, and positions itself for the future. Educational content, not financial advice.
Marathon Petroleum Corporation and TransCanada Corporation are compared on business models, financial performance, and market context. This page presents an accessible, neutral view of how each compan...
Why It's Moving
Marathon Petroleum Surges on Stellar Q4 Earnings, Fueling 2026 Buyback Momentum
- Adjusted earnings hit $4.06 per share, nearly 50% above forecasts, driven by 94% utilization and 105% margin capture signaling top-tier efficiency.
- Massive share buybacks slashed diluted shares by 10% in 2025, with momentum set to accelerate in 2026 alongside a juicy 2.25% dividend yield.
- Former executive's multi-million stock purchase on Feb 13 underscores insider optimism, as elevated gasoline margins point to another banner year.
TRP Stock Warning: Why Analysts See -18% Downside Risk
- Long-term forecasts predict TRP dropping to an average $54.69 by December 2026, implying about 18% downside from recent levels around $63, as patterns mirror similar stocks.
- Preferred share swap consolidates to 14 million Series 5 shares with a fixed 4.501% annualized dividend starting January 30, 2026, boosting stability but ending Series 6 listings and delaying conversions until 2031.
- Recent trading showed a 3.49% gain on February 13 amid neutral technicals—4 buy and 5 sell signals—but moving averages trend bullish with forecasts eyeing further drops by 2030.
Marathon Petroleum Surges on Stellar Q4 Earnings, Fueling 2026 Buyback Momentum
- Adjusted earnings hit $4.06 per share, nearly 50% above forecasts, driven by 94% utilization and 105% margin capture signaling top-tier efficiency.
- Massive share buybacks slashed diluted shares by 10% in 2025, with momentum set to accelerate in 2026 alongside a juicy 2.25% dividend yield.
- Former executive's multi-million stock purchase on Feb 13 underscores insider optimism, as elevated gasoline margins point to another banner year.
TRP Stock Warning: Why Analysts See -18% Downside Risk
- Long-term forecasts predict TRP dropping to an average $54.69 by December 2026, implying about 18% downside from recent levels around $63, as patterns mirror similar stocks.
- Preferred share swap consolidates to 14 million Series 5 shares with a fixed 4.501% annualized dividend starting January 30, 2026, boosting stability but ending Series 6 listings and delaying conversions until 2031.
- Recent trading showed a 3.49% gain on February 13 amid neutral technicals—4 buy and 5 sell signals—but moving averages trend bullish with forecasts eyeing further drops by 2030.
Investment Analysis
Pros
- Reported strong third-quarter 2025 revenue of approximately $35.85 billion, beating forecasts by nearly $3 billion.
- Maintained a high refinery utilization rate of 95%, processing 2.8 million barrels of crude per day indicating operational efficiency.
- Increased dividends by 10%, returning $3.2 billion to shareholders in Q3, demonstrating financial strength and shareholder return focus.
Considerations
- Missed adjusted earnings per share expectations in Q3 2025, with $3.01 versus analyst estimates of $3.18, disappointing investors.
- Experienced a significant stock price drop following Q3 earnings results, reflecting market concern about profitability performance.
- Shares appear overvalued relative to fair value estimates despite supportive margin environment, suggesting limited upside potential.
TC Energy
TRP
Pros
- Has a long history of shareholder value creation with an average annual return of 14% since 2000.
- Common shares traded on both the Toronto Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange, providing liquidity and investor access.
- Operates a diversified portfolio including pipelines and energy infrastructure which support stable long-term cash flows.
Considerations
- Exposed to regulatory and geopolitical risks inherent in cross-border energy infrastructure investments.
- Subject to commodity price volatility and changes in energy demand that can affect cash flow stability and project economics.
- Capital-intensive operations carry execution risks including project delays and cost overruns impacting profitability.
Related Market Insights
Fueling Profits: How OPEC+ Policy Could Boost These Energy Winners
Discover how OPEC+ policy creates opportunities for energy winners. Invest in transportation, refining, & pipeline stocks poised to profit from stable fuel costs. Explore Nemo's 'Fueling Profits' Neme.
Aimee Silverwood | Financial Analyst
July 25, 2025
Related Market Insights
Fueling Profits: How OPEC+ Policy Could Boost These Energy Winners
Discover how OPEC+ policy creates opportunities for energy winners. Invest in transportation, refining, & pipeline stocks poised to profit from stable fuel costs. Explore Nemo's 'Fueling Profits' Neme.
Aimee Silverwood | Financial Analyst
July 25, 2025
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Next Earnings Date
Marathon Petroleum's next earnings report is scheduled for May 5, 2026, covering the first quarter of 2026. The company has confirmed this date through its investor relations announcements. This follows the recent fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release on February 3, 2026, maintaining the company's typical quarterly reporting schedule.
TC Energy (TRP) Next Earnings Date
TC Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for April 30, 2026, where the company will discuss its Q1 2026 financial results. This follows the recent release of Q4 2025 earnings on February 13, 2026, in which the company reported EPS of $0.70, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.65. The April earnings call will provide executives' perspective on full-year financial performance and company outlook.
Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Next Earnings Date
Marathon Petroleum's next earnings report is scheduled for May 5, 2026, covering the first quarter of 2026. The company has confirmed this date through its investor relations announcements. This follows the recent fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release on February 3, 2026, maintaining the company's typical quarterly reporting schedule.
TC Energy (TRP) Next Earnings Date
TC Energy's next earnings report is scheduled for April 30, 2026, where the company will discuss its Q1 2026 financial results. This follows the recent release of Q4 2025 earnings on February 13, 2026, in which the company reported EPS of $0.70, exceeding analyst expectations of $0.65. The April earnings call will provide executives' perspective on full-year financial performance and company outlook.
Which Baskets Do They Appear In?
Fueling Profits: Beneficiaries Of OPEC+ Production Policy
OPEC+ is expected to maintain its policy of gradually increasing oil production, aiming to stabilize global energy markets. This could lead to moderated fuel costs, creating a potential advantage for companies in sectors like transportation and manufacturing where fuel is a major expense.
Published: July 25, 2025
Explore BasketWhich Baskets Do They Appear In?
Fueling Profits: Beneficiaries Of OPEC+ Production Policy
OPEC+ is expected to maintain its policy of gradually increasing oil production, aiming to stabilize global energy markets. This could lead to moderated fuel costs, creating a potential advantage for companies in sectors like transportation and manufacturing where fuel is a major expense.
Published: July 25, 2025
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