Freeport-McMoRan vs Vale

Freeport-McMoRan and Vale are compared across business models, financial performance, and market context. This page offers a neutral overview of how the companies operate, create value, and position themselves in the mining sector. Content is accessible and free from speculation or advice. Educational content, not financial advice.

Freeport-McMoRan and Vale are compared across business models, financial performance, and market context. This page offers a neutral overview of how the companies operate, create value, and position t...

Comparison Snapshot

Key Financial Metrics

FCX

Metric

VALE

$90.23B

Market Cap

$75.69B

-12.07%

Potential Profit

-14.46%

Buy

Analyst Rating

Buy

Why It's Moving

FCX Stock Warning: Why Analysts See -11% Downside Risk

Grasberg mine mud-rush slashed Q3 copper output by 90M lbs and gold by 80k oz, with uncertain restart delaying Q4 recovery and pressuring earnings.
Earnings estimates surged—with current-quarter consensus up 7.26% and full-year up 6.18% over 30 days—fueled by four upward revisions and optimism on copper prices.
Mixed analyst reactions post-Q3 beat (EPS $0.50 vs. $0.41 expected) include some estimate hikes but broader concerns over production disruptions and Nov. 18 update.

Sentiment:

🐻Bearish

VALE Stock Faces Analyst Warnings of -17% Downside Ahead of Pivotal Q4 Earnings

Analysts' median price target sits at 13.88, signaling -17% downside from current trading around 16-17, amid cautious forecasts for the iron ore producer.
Vale crushed 2025 production goals with 336 million tons of iron ore, highlighting robust operations but failing to fully offset analyst pessimism.
Q4 earnings expected at 0.572 USD per share on Feb 19, with premarket activity showing volatility as traders position for potential surprises.

Sentiment:

🐻Bearish

FCX Stock Warning: Why Analysts See -11% Downside Risk

Grasberg mine mud-rush slashed Q3 copper output by 90M lbs and gold by 80k oz, with uncertain restart delaying Q4 recovery and pressuring earnings.
Earnings estimates surged—with current-quarter consensus up 7.26% and full-year up 6.18% over 30 days—fueled by four upward revisions and optimism on copper prices.
Mixed analyst reactions post-Q3 beat (EPS $0.50 vs. $0.41 expected) include some estimate hikes but broader concerns over production disruptions and Nov. 18 update.

Sentiment:

🐻Bearish

VALE Stock Faces Analyst Warnings of -17% Downside Ahead of Pivotal Q4 Earnings

Analysts' median price target sits at 13.88, signaling -17% downside from current trading around 16-17, amid cautious forecasts for the iron ore producer.
Vale crushed 2025 production goals with 336 million tons of iron ore, highlighting robust operations but failing to fully offset analyst pessimism.
Q4 earnings expected at 0.572 USD per share on Feb 19, with premarket activity showing volatility as traders position for potential surprises.

Sentiment:

🐻Bearish

Investment Analysis

Freeport-McMoRan

FCX

Pros

Freeport-McMoRan has a strong market position with diversified mining assets across North America, South America, and Indonesia.
The company exhibits solid operating profit margins around 26%, reflecting effective operational management in the metals sector.
Freeport-McMoRan’s current price-to-earnings ratio is below its fair valuation metric, suggesting potential undervaluation relative to growth prospects.

Considerations

The stock trades at a higher PE ratio compared to industry peers, indicating it may be priced for growth and carries valuation risk.
Recent reports indicate a decline in copper and gold production, which could pressure near-term earnings.
Its share price volatility is above average with a beta of approximately 1.49, exposing it to amplified market risk.

Vale

VALE

Pros

Vale is a leading global producer of iron ore and nickel, essential raw materials for steelmaking and industrial use.
The company maintains a solid net profit margin above 13%, outperforming Freeport-McMoRan on profitability metrics like return on equity and assets.
Vale has shown recent resilience with a steady price increase over the past year and positive short-term price momentum.

Considerations

Vale's stock price is projected to decline slightly over the next year based on analyst and macroeconomic forecasts.
Its operating profit margin is lower than Freeport-McMoRan’s, which may suggest less operational efficiency in current market conditions.
Vale faces cyclical exposure to steel demand fluctuations and regulatory risks inherent to its extensive mining operations.

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