BP vs Canadian Natural
BP p.l.c. and Canadian Natural Resources Limited: this page compares business models, financial performance, and market context to help readers understand how these companies operate within the energy sector. The comparison covers strategy, scale, and market positioning in a neutral, accessible manner. Educational content, not financial advice.
BP p.l.c. and Canadian Natural Resources Limited: this page compares business models, financial performance, and market context to help readers understand how these companies operate within the energy...
Why It's Moving
BP Shares Surge on Oil Price Rebound and Aggressive Buyback Momentum
- Brent oil rallied from $60 lows on US-Iran strike risks, Chinese stockpiling, and cold weather lifting gas prices, easing pressures on BP's refining margins.
- BP expanded January buybacks to $750 million quarterly and transacted own shares on February 2, signaling strong capital returns to counter oil volatility.
- Upcoming February 10 earnings forecast EPS growth to $0.57, up 29.55% year-over-year, with analysts eyeing positive revisions amid sector tailwinds.
CNQ Faces Venezuela Oil Flood Fears but Powers Ahead with Strong Production Outlook.
- Geopolitical headlines on Venezuela risking heavy oil market glut are rattling Canadian producers, creating short-term price disconnects despite CNQ's low break-even points.
- Post-Chevron acquisition, CNQ eyes 1.59-1.65 million BOE/d in 2026—up 50,000 BOE/d—with a lean $6.3 billion capex budget driving efficient growth.
- Fortress finances shine through: net debt-to-EBITDA at 0.9x, liquidity over C$4.3 billion, and ability to sustain dividends even at WTI crude below $40.
BP Shares Surge on Oil Price Rebound and Aggressive Buyback Momentum
- Brent oil rallied from $60 lows on US-Iran strike risks, Chinese stockpiling, and cold weather lifting gas prices, easing pressures on BP's refining margins.
- BP expanded January buybacks to $750 million quarterly and transacted own shares on February 2, signaling strong capital returns to counter oil volatility.
- Upcoming February 10 earnings forecast EPS growth to $0.57, up 29.55% year-over-year, with analysts eyeing positive revisions amid sector tailwinds.
CNQ Faces Venezuela Oil Flood Fears but Powers Ahead with Strong Production Outlook.
- Geopolitical headlines on Venezuela risking heavy oil market glut are rattling Canadian producers, creating short-term price disconnects despite CNQ's low break-even points.
- Post-Chevron acquisition, CNQ eyes 1.59-1.65 million BOE/d in 2026—up 50,000 BOE/d—with a lean $6.3 billion capex budget driving efficient growth.
- Fortress finances shine through: net debt-to-EBITDA at 0.9x, liquidity over C$4.3 billion, and ability to sustain dividends even at WTI crude below $40.
Investment Analysis
BP
BP
Pros
- BP's Q3 2025 earnings significantly exceeded forecasts, with EPS and revenue surpassing estimates by over 10%.
- The company demonstrated operational excellence with 97% upstream plant reliability and the best refinery availability in 20 years.
- BP announced a $750 million share buyback and raised its dividend, supporting shareholder returns and demonstrating capital discipline.
Considerations
- BP's stock showed a slight decline post-earnings despite strong results, indicating possible market concerns or profit-taking.
- The company faces cyclicality risks from volatile oil prices and uncertainty from the global energy transition policies.
- BP's net income and EPS remain modest relative to its high revenue, with a trailing PE ratio suggesting valuation challenges.
Pros
- Canadian Natural Resources holds a diversified portfolio with operations in Western Canada, the North Sea, and Offshore Africa, enhancing geographic risk spread.
- Its valuation metrics like P/E ratio of 10.3x and PEG ratio below 1 indicate attractive relative valuation compared to sector averages.
- The company maintains a strong dividend yield of around 5.1% with a payout ratio of 62%, reflecting a balanced approach to income and reinvestment.
Considerations
- Canadian Natural's market capitalization declined over 8% year-over-year, showing some investor caution or sector headwinds.
- Its price to book and price to sales ratios are elevated relative to peers, which might suggest overvaluation concerns in some respects.
- The company remains exposed to commodity price swings, especially in crude oil and natural gas markets, posing earnings volatility risk.
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BP (BP) Next Earnings Date
BP p.l.c.'s next earnings date is estimated for Tuesday, February 10, 2026, covering the Q4 2025 period. This date aligns with analyst consensus based on the company's historical reporting patterns following the prior quarter's release. Investors should note that BP has not yet officially confirmed the exact timing or accompanying conference call details.
Canadian Natural (CNQ) Next Earnings Date
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) is estimated to report its next earnings for the Q4 2025 period around late February to early March 2026, with key estimates pointing to February 25-26 or March 5. The company has not yet confirmed the exact date, aligning with its historical pattern of early-year releases following year-end results. Investors should monitor for official announcements, as dates may shift slightly based on internal timelines.
BP (BP) Next Earnings Date
BP p.l.c.'s next earnings date is estimated for Tuesday, February 10, 2026, covering the Q4 2025 period. This date aligns with analyst consensus based on the company's historical reporting patterns following the prior quarter's release. Investors should note that BP has not yet officially confirmed the exact timing or accompanying conference call details.
Canadian Natural (CNQ) Next Earnings Date
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) is estimated to report its next earnings for the Q4 2025 period around late February to early March 2026, with key estimates pointing to February 25-26 or March 5. The company has not yet confirmed the exact date, aligning with its historical pattern of early-year releases following year-end results. Investors should monitor for official announcements, as dates may shift slightly based on internal timelines.
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Explore BasketWhich Baskets Do They Appear In?
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